Wednesday, January 28, 2026

The 'Goeben' Incident - a 'Jono's World' Scenario

 A short while ago - a week or two, maybe - the subject came up in someone's blog, or comments therein, of an incident early in World War One involving a German battlecruiser, SMS Goeben, accompanied by a light cruiser SMS Breslau, encountering a British force of four armoured cruisers. The German ships had been sent to the Mediterranean, destined to enter the service of the Ottoman Empire.

Without going into the adventures of this miniscule, 2-vessel, German Mediterranean Battle 'Division' against the French Navy and the British Mediterranean Fleet, there was a point at which Rear-Admiral Troubridge's armoured cruiser squadron, HMSS Black Prince, Defence, Duke of Edinburgh and Warrior, might have brought the two German ships into action. Following orders that were never quite up to date with real events, Troubridge let pass the opportunity. 

This, of course, has become one of those fascinating 'what if?' scenarios. What might have been the result of the four armoured cruisers taking on a battlecruiser accompanied by a light? Was Troubridge correct in his assessment that the German ship constituted a 'superior force', and therefore, following orders, to avoid an engagement?

One of the reasons for my particular interest being piqued, was that, some 40 years ago, this scenario was the basis of one of several scenarios used for a competition in a Wellington war games club (not the Warlords, the other one at the time). After several rounds, SMS Moltke (standing in for its sister ship Goeben) and Breslau had been universally victorious. So then I drew the Germans for my battle.

It was the type of 'rotten show' that described the Coronel disaster for the Royal Navy. I simply could not buy a straddle, let alone a hit. Under the rule set, the main guns were operated under a central control system, which gave better odds of a straddle, and therefore of hits, and consequently damage, upon the enemy. I was getting nothing (except accumulated damage to my own ships) - a whole string of sh.. cr.. horrible dice rolls. In sheer desperation, I split my 2-ship force, and shut down the central control to give the guns independent fire. At least I improved the odds of scoring a hit, even though reducing the odds of scoring multiple hits, and hence less damage. 

If memory serves, I didn't actually lose the battle, but I didn't win it either, which was, in view of the other results, tantamount to an ignominious drubbing. I seem to recall amused murmurs of 'Courts Marshal' being uttered...

At any rate, the recent blog comments sparked my interest in trying the thing out. Now, my Chubby Marine just doesn't have the mix of ships to make the thing a goer. But my Mini-Chubbies might be adapted. My entire inventory includes just one 'armoured cruiser', and a formidable unit it is, but it seemed to me that 4 standard cruisers would suitably make up the 'British' force. What would the battlecruiser's consort be?

For much of this exercise, I assumed (forgetting my own rule set) that the Battlecruiser stood at 21 Flotation Points (FP). It should have been 18FP (we'll come to that!). It carried 9 heavy guns (primary weapons), and 6 mediums (secondary). All five cruisers carried 6 mediums and 6 lights, and stood at 12FP apiece. Now, look at the 'math', per broadside:
B/C Squadron: 33FP total, 9 heavy guns, 12 mediums and 6 lights.
A/C Squadron: 48FP total, 24 medium guns and 24 lights 
All vessels carried torpedoes. 
Although the 9 heavy guns outranged the enemy, and were more effective than the rest at all ranges, I did wonder whether under my rule set, that would outweigh the disparities in protection and numbers of guns.


The range closes to medium for the battlecruiser's 
main guns. On the Cruisers' side, Rear-Admiral Trewford's
flagship has already taken two long range hits (the green die).
The Cruisers' gunnery is woeful!!


So, for the first 'passage of arms'  the armoured cruiser joined the battlecruiser. This really did beef up the B/C Squadron: 36FP, 9 heavy guns, 15 mediums and 6 lights. But, would it be enough?



As Trewford's ship staggers badly wounded out of the battle.
the rest of his squadron bravely (rashly) closes the range
in the hope that the increased firepower will redress the balance.


It was. In spades. The cruiser squadron was quickly and easily crushed.

Terrific exchange of gunfire at short range. But
the damage so far accumulated (12FP vs 3FP) places
the cruiser squadron at a disadvantage.

A terrible mauling on both sides. Another cruiser 
exits the battle critically injured, and then a third is sunk
under a decisive salvo. But the battlecruiser
has taken a lot of damage itself.


The surviving cruisers turn to flee, but the pursuing 
battlecruiser sends another to the bottom. Not without
receiving bites in return. With 18FP damage (out of 21), 
KNS Pteranodon abandons the pursuit.

Well, that was interesting. Clearly the balance was wrong, whatever the 'math' had to say to the matter.

So I redid the scenario. The Saabian Navy took over from the Kiivar, whilst the Ra'esharn continued its role as the 4-cruiser squadron. The battlecruiser's consort was to be a standard 6-gun cruiser instead of the 9-gun heavy. 

I'll leave the other AARs until next time. I will also add a little 'math', for whoever might find that sort of thing as interesting as I do.

To be concluded...



13 comments:

  1. An interesting exercise, I guess proving the reticence of the Rear Admiral to be justified

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    1. Maudlin Jack -
      The Court Marshal acquitted Troubridge from the charge of failing to engage a 'fleeing enemy'. But the incident did his career no good. There seems to have been some question whether the 9.2-inch guns would have inflicted much damage at all to the well protected battlecruiser.

      One of the difficulties making generic rules for ship types, is the disparate designs between British and German battlecruisers. The Germans went for protection, the British (Adm Jacky Fisher) went for speed and firepower. For for my 'mini-chubbies' I've gone the Jacky Fisher way. My rule set is too granular for the German design comfortably to 'fit'.

      As a scenario using my rule set and navies, I don't think it tells us all that much about the realities in 1914, but I found it an interesting exercise for its own sake.
      Cheers,
      Ion

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  2. Odd coincidence: just before I read your blog post I was watching a new YouTube post from Drachinifel entitled "Should Admiral Troubridge have engaged Admiral Souchen and the Goeben?" A very interesting account which nicely complements your post. What's more, apart from 25+ minutes of history the video ends with a wargame between Goeben and the armoured cruisers (the RN lost two armoured cruisers and two destroyers sunk, but Goeben took a torpedo hit). Recommended.

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    1. Mike -
      Something to look up, that's for sure! I didn't include destroyers in this exercise, they being mentioned only peripherally in the accounts I've seen. But torpedoes were launched when the range closed to 'short' (3 hexes). I don't recall that in any of the four iterations of this action there was a single torpedo hit. I may have to check my photos for that.

      One of the battle tactics I wanted to explore involved the efforts of the cruiser squadron to shorten the range; and the Germans to keep the range at 'medium' (4-6 hexes). That's where the 'math' comes in. I'll include a little diagram/chart in the next posting.

      On the question of 'should' Troubridge have engaged, from a moral perspective perhaps he ought to have accepted action, even if he thought the odds were long against him. I have a feeling - just a feeling, mark you - that although the court marshal could find no fault in his decision from a practical perspective, the naval authorities were inclined to the view that the whole affair cast a shadow over the Royal Navy's reputation.

      After all, a 2-vessel 'fleet' had bearded the whole French Navy and the British Mediterranean squadron, both, and got away with it.
      Cheers,
      Ion

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    2. Mike -
      I've just watched the YouTube 'Drachinifel' account. Pretty comprehensive, and the war game looked interesting too. I gather there is, or will be, a more detailed programme on the war game.

      My 'Jono's World' rule set just accumulates damage to a ship's survivability. As such it may be criticised as unrealistically crude, as even a destroyer's pop-gun armament, or a cruiser's puny secondary guns, can inflict hurt upon a battleship.

      Against that, one's reading increasing forms the impression that even one-sided victories (Coronel, Falklands) come at a high cost in ships' fuel and ammunition stocks.

      I note, by the way, that come WW2, the Royal Navy was often very prepared, and successfully too, to take on the enemy's heavier units.
      Cheers,
      Ion

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    3. Ion,
      On that question of whether Troubridge should have engaged, if we apply 20:20 hindsight to the grand strategical results the answer is definitely yes – maybe Turkey wouldn’t have joined the Central Powers if Goeben didn’t arrive – though Jutland based hindsight suggests that armoured cruisers who go head-to-head with capital ships get really clobbered. I’m uncertain as to the “moral” question, without hindsight was it worth getting hundreds of his men killed? As for the RN in World War 2, they certainly didn’t hesitate to engage superior German forces but I think they were a lot more circumspect when facing the Italians.

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  3. Funnily enough I've played this hypothetical action a few times as I always thought it was an interesting 'what if' and generally the RN came off rather worse, although there was one iteration where the Goeben was so badly damaged it was a crushing British victory.

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    1. Martin -
      Battle are always chancy, and naval battles seem to be the chanciest of all. A single lucky hit might be enough to turn a battle. There is some indication that the one capital ship the Germans lost at Jutland, the pre-dreadnought 'Pommern' fell victim to some such mischance. Of course, so did the three battlecruisers the Royal Navy lost.
      Cheers,
      Ion

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  4. Hi Ion,

    For a variety of reasons this has given me much to ponder! My feeling is that the ACs would have needed to have gotten in close to score any meaningful damage - the downside being that 11” projectiles are certainly going to wreak havoc amongst them. Very much a ‘damned if you do or damned if you don’t’ scenario.

    I need to look into this in more detail methinks.

    All the best,

    DC

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    1. David -
      I think you are right, on the whole. To some extent, we are looking at the limitations of a simple naval rule set such as I am using for this particular project.

      Having said that, some rather interesting trends came to light. It became fairly clear that the battlecruiser's best option was to close to medium range, which doubled the effectiveness of its primary batteries, and brought its secondaries into the action. This brought the cruisers' primary guns into play, but at extreme range. The battlecruisers' firepower at mid-range (under this rule set!) was 4 times that of a single cruiser - equal to the 4 ship squadron.

      If the range shortened, the battlecruiser got to 4.33 times its long range level - the primaries trebled, the secondaries doubled. A single cruiser at that range doubled its primaries, and brought its secondaries into action. The battlecruiser: cruiser firepower ratio gets reduced from 24:6 to 13:6 (39:18 - leaving aside torpedo hazards).

      Though it was very much in the interests of the cruisers to bring the range down to 3 hexes or less, to do so seemed to carry the risk of incurring serious damage (loss of FP) in doing so, as, in running the gauntlet of enemy firepower, they would have only their forward-firing batteries in action.

      Just by the way, to illustrate how chancy even fistfuls of dice can be: at one point the battlecruiser had, at medium range, 9 dice to roll looking for 5s and 6s; and 6 dice looking for 6s. Not a single hit registered. Not. A. One.

      Now, of course, you run this exercise long enough, such a result occurring eventually tends to certainty, but, in a single, given roll, it comes to (2/3)^9 x (5/6)^6 = 7/800 approximately - less than a hundred to one against.

      I suspect my cruisers are cognate roughly to a heavy cruiser of the HMS Exeter type, the single heavy in my inventory something closer to the American or Japanese 9x8-inch heavies. But this rule set is not designed to distinguish individual ship characteristics (c.f. my 'Mighty Armadas' rule set, which does). Even the three battlecruisers and single 'heavy' cruiser were whims.

      I think I might include some of the conversations here in my next posting.
      Cheers,
      Ion

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  5. A well written “what if” appeared in the anthology “Alternate Generals”, replacing Troubridge with Adm. Craddock from Coronel.

    https://www.baen.com/Chapters/0671878867/0671878867___2.htm

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    1. Anonymous -
      Thanks for the link! I had a quick look, and will read it properly soon.
      Cheers,
      Ion

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    2. Anonymous -
      Fine story, contemplative, well written. Reminds me a bit of Douglas Reeman's story-telling and narrative style. Out of curiosity I checked out the route of 'Geoben' and 'Breslau', and sure enough, they did take their course through the strait between Cape Malae and Kithera.

      I had some notion of a vaguely (very vaguely) similar strategy behind my Azuria vs Hellenia action related in July last year:
      https://archdukepiccolo.blogspot.com/2025/06/little-great-war-prologue.html
      Cheers,
      Ion

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